Navigating the Complexity of Theory of Change in Agile Programs: Insights from Ashoka's Hello Accelerator

In the realm of social innovation, crafting a Theory of Change (ToC) can pose significant challenges, especially within complex and agile programs. The Ashoka Hello Accelerator team has tackled this issue head-on, developing a system that effectively tracks progress towards their ambitious vision: a world where Everyone is recognized as a Changemaker, particularly those who are on the move.

Long-Term Change and Collaborative Problem-Solving

Ashoka's guiding principle, "Everyone a Changemaker," informs the Hello Accelerator's long-term objectives. The program aims to foster recognition among social entrepreneurs and key stakeholders of the potential of people on the move as changemakers. However, achieving such a broad and transformative change is no small feat, particularly within the confines of a two-year program operating across two continents.

Central to the Hello Accelerator's approach is the activation of social entrepreneurs and other stakeholders to collaboratively identify specific problems and propose innovative solutions within ecosystems of choice. This participatory process grants significant freedom to the participants, allowing them to shape the program's outcomes. Consequently, the design and implementation team has limited control over the final results, making the development of a measurable Theory of Change particularly challenging.

Developing a Theory of Change

Initially, the team created a simplistic Theory of Change that outlined the logic of their activities and the overarching rationale behind them. While this framework was adequate for initial design, planning, and communication, it fell short in terms of impact measurement. Acknowledging this limitation, the team dedicated extensive resources to reflect on the intended and unintended outputs of their activities, as well as the expected outcomes and timelines. 

We categorized outputs and short-term outcomes achievable within the existing project lifespan and partnerships while also identifying mid-term outcomes projected over five to ten years. For each defined output and outcome, measurable indicators were established to track progress. This phase proved to be complex, as the team grappled with creating realistic indicators that were neither overly ambitious nor resource intensive.

Together with the indicators we developed monitoring questions and means of verification. This step had proven to be a creative exercise, as we planned for mix of participatory methods, desk research, outcome harvesting and feedback tools. Thanks to broad toolbox, we hope to be able to prove the impact of our efforts over time.

Multi-Layered Theory of Change

The nature of the Hello Accelerator necessitates a multi-layered Theory of Change. One layer focuses on the accelerator's methodology, assessing whether bringing diverse stakeholders together to co-create solutions effectively advances the long-term goal of changing perceptions and support for people on the move. Here we mostly want to observe the impact of the method itself, so the tools range around design evaluation: post-intervention qualitative analysis, process tracing, cost-benefit effectiveness.

Another layer involves participants ideating solutions for the challenges they identify, which means the design team must remain flexible and open to the unknowns until the cohorts articulate their desired changes. Here we allow the cohort members to design the logical framework and we are ready to adjust the evaluation tools to the type of intervention they design.

Additionally, the Theory of Change must account for external factors influencing the ecosystem. The team recognized that various external forces—such as political narratives, media influences, and changing economic conditions—could impact program outcomes. By continuously monitoring and evaluating these dynamics, the team can better understand the contributions and attributions of different factors towards their desired effects. Here we aim for using contribution analysis, systemic reviews, system mapping.  

An Evolving Framework

The Theory of Change, which is the core tool enabling us to stay on track may be compared to a nest, which holds within a bunch of tools. Together with agile structure of the program itself, the approach to monitoring, evaluation and impact measurement shall remain agile.

The structure and plan we created is not a static document. It requires ongoing review and adaptation based on the program's evolving context and the insights gained from cohort members. The Hello team embraces this fluidity, recognizing that the Theory of Change is a living document meant to track progress amidst the complexities of daily operations.

And it's absolutely fine. The Theory of Change is not to be printed and put proudly on the wall; rather, it serves as a dynamic framework that allows for the tracking of progress, even when daily work feels messy or uncertain.

Monitoring outputs and cross-checking how to measure outcomes and impacts is a resource-intensive exercise. It demands attention not just from specialists in monitoring and impact measurement, but from the entire team. Every individual involved in the program's design and implementation must cultivate specific awareness that enables them to identify signs of change.  

In this context, monitoring is intricately linked to learning and feedback mechanisms. We al seek to identify emerging topics, trends, and signs of change both in work with the cohort members, other stakeholders, and in broader attentive observation of the complex ecosystem of migration. This approach not only serves to validate the impact of our work—acknowledging that immediate results may not be visible—but also helps us understand changes occurring outside their influence, which must be accepted and embraced as part of the ever-shifting landscape they navigate.